US oil output to surpass Russia, Saudi Arabia in 6 yrs

Mubasher: US liquids production is expected to outpace 24 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2025, outpacing the combined output from Russia and Saudi Arabia, independent energy research Rystad Energy said in its base case oil price scenario.

After regaining its position as the world’s top liquids producer in 2014, the US “is poised to accelerate into a league of its own over the next six years and eclipse the collective output of its two closest rivals by 2025,” Rystad Energy Partner Artem Abramov said.

Historically, the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia have persistently swapped places at the top of global liquid producers, but lately market-driven US oil activity and production have built significant momentum.

The US has not seen its liquids market share – measuring crude oil, lease condensate and plant natural gas liquids – surpass 50% among the “Big Three” producing nations since 1970.

“US growth potential could be slowed if oil prices slide below our base case for extended periods but, as long as average prices stay above $50, positive US production tendencies will persist,” Abramov added.

Rystad Energy assumes an average WTI Cushing oil price of $58 per barrel (pb) in 2019 to 2025.

The Norway-headquartered consulting firm ascribed the future growth in US liquids production to major shale basins such as the Permian in parts of Texas and New Mexico.

“Some market participants have voiced concerns about a possible depletion in resources from core parts of major liquids basins in the US. But there are no indications that such a development will occur any time soon,” Abramov said. 

Mubasher Contribution Time: 27-Jan-2019 09:38 (GMT)
Mubasher Last Update Time: 27-Jan-2019 09:38 (GMT)