Mubasher: Energy prices are forecast to sustain higher levels as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut, according to Emirates NBD Research.
Approximately 20% of total global seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through the strait, which is a critical chokepoint that has been effectively closed due to Iranian threats and attacks against vessels.
“The disruption to vessels and attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf is forcing production to be shut-in, limiting volumes from the region and compounding the impact of geopolitical anxiety on energy prices,” Emirates NBD Research clarified.
Meanwhile, the research unit’s expectation for oil prices in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 has shifted higher, “as the conflict has materially altered the fundamental picture.”
Emirates NBD Research said it now expects Brent oil at an average of $70 per barrel in Q1-26, signaling a rise from $63 per barrel as previously predicted.
Fitch Ratings also stated that it does not expect significant upside to the assumption of an average Brent oil price of $63 per barrel for 2026.
